{"id":39921,"date":"2024-06-05T12:47:09","date_gmt":"2024-06-05T10:47:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/archive.displayeurope.eu\/?post_type=article&#038;p=39921"},"modified":"2024-09-06T16:32:51","modified_gmt":"2024-09-06T14:32:51","slug":"evropa-obraty-vychod","status":"publish","type":"article","link":"https:\/\/archive.displayeurope.eu\/cs\/article\/evropa-obraty-vychod\/","title":{"rendered":"Evropa se obrac\u00ed na v\u00fdchod"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Plnohodnotn\u00e1 invaze Ruska na Ukrajinu v roce 2022 a pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lka vyvolaly&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/13501763.2022.2140820\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">postupn\u00fd posun<\/a>&nbsp;v zahrani\u010dn\u00ed a obrann\u00e9 politice Evropsk\u00e9 unie. Tento politick\u00fd posun spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee EU po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s omezenou schopnost\u00ed odvr\u00e1tit vojensk\u00e9 a hybridn\u00ed \u00fatoky na sv\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed a s je\u0161t\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b \u00fa\u010dinnou strategi\u00ed nasazen\u00ed sil pot\u0159ebn\u00fdch k reakci na p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 \u00fatoky ze strany vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho agresora, jako je Rusko.<\/p> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pro aktivaci siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed a obrann\u00e9 politiky m\u011bly evropsk\u00e9 \u010dlensk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty dosud k dispozici n\u011bkolik n\u00e1stroj\u016f. Tento soubor evropsk\u00fdch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch n\u00e1stroj\u016f&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/encompass-europe.com\/comment\/we-need-to-talk-about-eu-enlargement\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">zahrnuje<\/a>&nbsp;o\u017eiven\u00fd proces roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u00e1le na v\u00fdchod, spole\u010dn\u00fd z\u00e1vazek podpo\u0159it v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed Ukrajiny, zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 v\u00fddaje na n\u00e1rodn\u00ed \u00farovni a v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed investice do evropsk\u00e9ho obrann\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu. V\u0161echny tyto politiky jsou reverzibiln\u00ed, p\u0159esto z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 proces v\u00fdchodn\u00edho roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed nejn\u00e1ro\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm vzhledem k&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/encompass-europe.com\/comment\/we-need-to-talk-about-eu-enlargement\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">rozsahu po\u017eadovan\u00e9 transformace<\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Zem\u011b zapojen\u00e9 do&nbsp;unijn\u00edho&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eeas.europa.eu\/eeas\/eastern-partnership_en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">V\u00fdchodn\u00edho partnerstv\u00ed<\/a>&nbsp;se od za\u010d\u00e1tku rusko-ukrajinsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky a rostouc\u00edho z\u00e1jmu EU o tento d\u0159\u00edve zna\u010dn\u011b opom\u00edjen\u00fd region rovn\u011b\u017e p\u0159izp\u016fsobily postinvazn\u00ed realit\u011b a zm\u011bnily sv\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00e9 postoje. Rozd\u00edln\u00e9 vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed hrozby ze strany Ruska v\u0161ak vedlo k rozd\u00edln\u00fdm politick\u00fdm v\u00fdsledk\u016fm. N\u011bkter\u00e9 zem\u011b se odhodlan\u011b zav\u00e1zaly k posunu sv\u00fdch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch vazeb sm\u011brem k Z\u00e1padu. Nejaktivn\u011bji se o tuto zm\u011bnu sna\u017eily Ukrajina a Moldavsko. Tak\u00e9 gruz\u00ednsk\u00e9 politick\u00e9 elity vyu\u017eily p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti, kterou jim poskytla otev\u0159enost EU, aby o\u017eivily svou politiku roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed a p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eily se EU, ale nad\u00e1le vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed antiliber\u00e1ln\u00ed a protidemokratick\u00e9 praktiky, kter\u00e9 t\u00e9to evropsk\u00e9 cest\u011b br\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>M\u00e9n\u011b definitivn\u011b, ale p\u0159esto stoj\u00ed za zm\u00ednku, \u017ee Arm\u00e9nie uvolnila sv\u00e9 vazby na Rusko, kter\u00e9 bylo d\u0159\u00edve pova\u017eov\u00e1no za &#8222;patron\u00e1tn\u00ed st\u00e1t&#8220; t\u00e9to jihokavkazsk\u00e9 zem\u011b, \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b v reakci na jeho nedostate\u010dnou intervenci v&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eurozine.com\/a-small-world-war\/\">Azerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9 p\u0159evzet\u00ed N\u00e1horn\u00edho Karabachu<\/a><strong>.&nbsp;<\/strong>Azerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n a B\u011blorusko se d\u00e1le autokratizovaly a vzd\u00e1lily se instituc\u00edm a demokratick\u00fdm princip\u016fm prosazovan\u00fdm kolektivn\u00edm Z\u00e1padem, kter\u00fd tvo\u0159\u00ed Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty (USA) a EU. B\u011blorusko se pevn\u011b p\u0159esunulo do t\u00e1bora Ruska. \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n naopak zlep\u0161il sv\u00e9 pracovn\u00ed vztahy s Kremlem a z\u00e1rove\u0148 zv\u00fd\u0161il objem sv\u00e9ho energetick\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozu do Evropy, kter\u00fd nahrazuje v\u00fdvoz z Ruska.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sbli\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed politiky se Z\u00e1padem v n\u011bkter\u00fdch z t\u011bchto v\u00fdchodoevropsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed by nebylo tak v\u00fdrazn\u00e9, kdyby neexistoval bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed imperativ vyvolan\u00fd ruskou invaz\u00ed na Ukrajinu. P\u0159esto ne v\u0161ichni souhlas\u00ed s t\u00edm, \u017ee bezpe\u010dnost Evropy je ohro\u017eena Ruskem nebo \u017ee je spojena s dal\u0161\u00edm roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00edm EU na v\u00fdchod. V\u00fdsledek voleb do Evropsk\u00e9ho parlamentu (EP) v \u010dervnu 2024 p\u0159inese v EP v\u00edce Rusku naklon\u011bn\u00fdch nebo Ukrajin\u011b neutr\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00e1stupc\u016f a vyzve p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed Evropskou komisi, aby se dr\u017eela kurzu solidarity s Ukrajinou.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>V neposledn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b by vzestup krajn\u00ed pravice v n\u00e1rodn\u00edch vl\u00e1d\u00e1ch mohl vyvolat dal\u0161\u00ed nap\u011bt\u00ed v znovu o\u017eiven\u00fdch geopolitick\u00fdch ambic\u00edch Evropy a zpochybnit jej\u00ed odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed pos\u00edlit projekci sil. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 protievropsk\u00e9 ne\u00fasp\u011bchy v kandid\u00e1tsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch by mohly p\u016fsobit i proti v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed podpo\u0159e sousedstv\u00ed EU.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ukrajina<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Ze v\u0161ech v\u00fdchodn\u00edch kandid\u00e1tsk\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f se Ukrajin\u011b dostalo nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed politick\u00e9, ekonomick\u00e9 a vojensk\u00e9 pozornosti ze strany kolektivn\u00edho Z\u00e1padu. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed vl\u00e1d a spole\u010dnost\u00ed EU ohledn\u011b vojensk\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed a st\u00e1tn\u00edch reforem, kter\u00e9 tuto podporu prov\u00e1zej\u00ed, v\u0161ak zdaleka nebyla realistick\u00e1. Tento rozpor bude m\u00edt i nad\u00e1le vliv na stabilizaci a pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed podpory t\u00e9to v\u00e1lkou zm\u00edtan\u00e9 zem\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vojensk\u00e1 pomoc, kterou Ukrajina obdr\u017eela od evropsk\u00fdch partner\u016f a partner\u016f v NATO, je sice rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed pro zabr\u00e1n\u011bn\u00ed \u00fapln\u00e9 a okam\u017eit\u00e9 por\u00e1\u017ece, ale uk\u00e1zala se jako nedostate\u010dn\u00e1 a p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 pomal\u00e1 pro zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. Pomalu a p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u011b tento pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fd v\u00fdsledek frustruje evropskou ve\u0159ejnost, jej\u00ed\u017e podpora Ukrajin\u011b se&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.europarl.europa.eu\/at-your-service\/files\/be-heard\/eurobarometer\/2022\/public-opinion-on-the-war-in-ukraine\/en-public-opinion-on-the-war-against-ukraine-20240223.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">sn\u00ed\u017eila<\/a>&nbsp;v n\u011bkolika kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch, v\u010detn\u011b poskytov\u00e1n\u00ed humanit\u00e1rn\u00ed pomoci a p\u0159\u00edstupu na pracovn\u00ed trh, urychlen\u00e9ho \u010dlenstv\u00ed v EU, sd\u00edlen\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f na energie a dod\u00e1vek vojensk\u00e9 pomoci. V&nbsp;roce <a href=\"https:\/\/europeangovernanceandpolitics.eui.eu\/eui-yougov-solidarity-in-europe-project\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2024<\/a> z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 podpora stabiln\u00ed pouze mezi nejv\u011brn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi podporovateli Ukrajiny (jako jsou seversk\u00e9 zem\u011b a pobaltsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty), zat\u00edmco v&#038;nbspzem\u00edch jako Rumunsko, It\u00e1lie a N\u011bmecko kles\u00e1 a v&#038;nbspn\u00e1rodech jako Bulharsko a Slovensko z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 trvale n\u00edzk\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukrajinsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da a jej\u00ed obyvatel\u00e9 jsou naopak nad\u00e1le odhodl\u00e1ni j\u00edt na evropskou cestu sv\u00e9 zem\u011b. V \u00fanoru 2024 bylo osm z deseti Ukrajinc\u016f pro vstup do EU a NATO. Reformn\u00ed \u00fakol, kter\u00fd jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o vstupu do EU prov\u00e1z\u00ed, v\u0161ak vy\u017eaduje od ukrajinsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy obrovsk\u00e9 \u00fasil\u00ed, kter\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 podm\u00ednky je\u0161t\u011b zt\u011b\u017euj\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Od rozhodnut\u00ed Evropsk\u00e9 rady ze dne 14. prosince 2023 zah\u00e1jit&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/commission\/presscorner\/detail\/en\/ac_23_6711\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">p\u0159\u00edstupov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed&nbsp;<\/a>s Ukrajinou vl\u00e1da t\u00e9to zem\u011b sp\u011bch\u00e1 s p\u0159izp\u016fsoben\u00edm sv\u00fdch pr\u00e1vn\u00edch p\u0159edpis\u016f acquis EU. Vl\u00e1da&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/ec.europa.eu\/commission\/presscorner\/detail\/en\/ip_24_1982\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">finalizovala<\/a>&nbsp;sv\u016fj &#8222;pl\u00e1n reforem Ukrajiny&#8220; na ja\u0159e 2024. Pl\u00e1n \u010dlenstv\u00ed Ukrajiny v EU v\u0161ak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 pro bojuj\u00edc\u00ed zemi n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00fdm \u00fakolem. Dlouh\u00e1 v\u00e1lka, kter\u00e1 Ukrajinu \u010dek\u00e1, bude i nad\u00e1le vy\u010derp\u00e1vat jej\u00ed lidsk\u00e9 a finan\u010dn\u00ed zdroje a zt\u011b\u017euje budov\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u00e1vn\u00edho st\u00e1tu ve v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9m stavu, kter\u00fd nad\u00e1le omezuje demokratick\u00e9 svobody, v\u010detn\u011b svobody pohybu, svobody tisku, svobody pokojn\u00e9ho shroma\u017e\u010fov\u00e1n\u00ed a pr\u00e1vn\u00ed ochrany.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Evropsk\u00e1 komise si p\u0159i hodnocen\u00ed form\u00e1ln\u00edho reformn\u00edho procesu na Ukrajin\u011b (a v Moldavsku) ponech\u00e1v\u00e1 volnost. Vykazuje tak\u00e9 zn\u00e1mky toho, \u017ee ch\u00e1pe, jak n\u00e1ro\u010dn\u00fd \u00fakol p\u0159ed n\u00ed stoj\u00ed. Na podporu r\u016fstu Ukrajiny v obdob\u00ed 2024-2027 vytvo\u0159ila Komise zd\u00e1nliv\u011b nezvratn\u00fd nov\u00fd n\u00e1stroj,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/eu-solidarity-ukraine.ec.europa.eu\/eu-assistance-ukraine\/ukraine-facility_en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Ukrajinsk\u00fd n\u00e1stroj<\/a>, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 Ukrajin\u011b poskytnout p\u0159edv\u00eddatelnou finan\u010dn\u00ed podporu. Ale rusk\u00e1&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/3fd6b61b-f9f4-47dc-9369-27909868a0b6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">trval\u00e1 militarizace<\/a>&nbsp;v\u00e1lku prodlou\u017e\u00ed. To sni\u017euje pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee bude schopno prov\u00e9st z\u00e1sadn\u00ed reformy, kter\u00e9 vy\u017eaduj\u00ed dostatek lidsk\u00e9ho kapit\u00e1lu a st\u00e1tn\u00edch kapacit: reformu ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy; obsazen\u00ed voln\u00fdch m\u00edst v soudnictv\u00ed a prov\u011b\u0159en\u00ed \u00fa\u0159aduj\u00edc\u00edch soudc\u016f; vybudov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u016fv\u011bryhodn\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed, trestn\u00edho st\u00edh\u00e1n\u00ed a pravomocn\u00fdch soudn\u00edch rozhodnut\u00ed v p\u0159\u00edpadech korupce na vysok\u00e9 \u00farovni; a boj proti organizovan\u00e9mu zlo\u010dinu, v\u010detn\u011b kontroly neleg\u00e1ln\u00edho toku st\u0159eln\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s lidmi a kyberkriminality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Evropsk\u00e9 politick\u00e9 strany, kter\u00e9 ji\u017e&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2024\/04\/15\/world\/europe\/germany-afd-russia.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">navrhuj\u00ed<\/a>&nbsp;v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed spolupr\u00e1ci ve v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9m \u00fasil\u00ed Ukrajiny, budou i nad\u00e1le zbrojit proti ekonomick\u00fdm obav\u00e1m evropsk\u00e9 ve\u0159ejnosti z v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed podpory Ukrajiny. Krajn\u011b pravicov\u00e9 strany, jako je francouzsk\u00e9 N\u00e1rodn\u00ed shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed, ma\u010farsk\u00fd Fidesz, n\u011bmeck\u00e1 Alternativa pro N\u011bmecko, rumunsk\u00e1 Aliance pro svaz Rumun\u016f nebo slovensk\u00fd Sm\u011br-soci\u00e1ln\u00ed demokracie, budou vytv\u00e1\u0159et nov\u00e9 p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky financov\u00e1n\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9ho v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho \u00fasil\u00ed a br\u00e1nit pokroku v roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed. Zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed ve financov\u00e1n\u00ed a nejistota ohledn\u011b evropsk\u00e9 budoucnosti zase d\u00e1le zma\u0159\u00ed reformn\u00ed \u00fasil\u00ed Ukrajiny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Moldova<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Moldavsko je d\u00edky sv\u00e9 mal\u00e9 rozloze a ekonomice ze v\u0161ech v\u00fdchodn\u00edch kandid\u00e1t\u016f nejsn\u00e1ze technicky za\u010dleniteln\u00e9 do jednotn\u00e9ho trhu EU. Zem\u011b je v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 jednou z nejchud\u0161\u00edch v Evrop\u011b a st\u00e1le m\u00e1 nevy\u0159e\u0161en\u00e9 \u00fazemn\u00ed probl\u00e9my v p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b prorusk\u00e9m separatistick\u00e9m regionu Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed a tak\u00e9 v autonomn\u00ed oblasti Gagauzie, kter\u00e1 je st\u00e1le v\u00edce v\u00e1z\u00e1na na Rusko. Etnick\u00e9 a \u00fazemn\u00ed konflikty \u010din\u00ed \u00fakol integrace do EU je\u0161t\u011b obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Podle pr\u016fzkumu ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed z po\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2023 si t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/moldova1.md\/p\/8144\/survey-nearly-60-percent-of-moldovans-support-moldova-s-eu-membership\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">60 %<\/a>&nbsp;Moldavan\u016f p\u0159eje, aby jejich zem\u011b vstoupila do EU, ale evropsk\u00fd kurz Moldavska z\u00e1vis\u00ed na udr\u017een\u00ed prorusk\u00fdch sil mimo vl\u00e1du. Tento druh\u00fd c\u00edl vy\u017eaduje mnoho politick\u00fdch man\u00e9vr\u016f, kter\u00e9 zahrnuj\u00ed omezen\u00ed prorusk\u00fdch Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed, aby zv\u00fd\u0161ili sv\u016fj vliv na politiku Ki\u0161in\u011bva.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00daloha Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed &#8211; a st\u00e1le v\u00edce i Gagauzie &#8211; je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 z hlediska mo\u017en\u00e9ho ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed politiky v Ki\u0161in\u011bv\u011b. V \u00fanoru 2024 po\u017e\u00e1dalo podn\u011bstersk\u00e9 veden\u00ed Moskvu, aby ho chr\u00e1nila p\u0159ed&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/02\/28\/europe\/transnistria-russia-protection-moldova-intl\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">&#8222;rostouc\u00edm tlakem&#8220;&nbsp;<\/a> ze strany moldavsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Militantn\u00ed Rusko neinvestuje do Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed, regionu s p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 400 000 obyvateli, z nich\u017e mnoz\u00ed jsou d\u016fchodci, pozornost ani prost\u0159edky. Ambice Moskvy destabilizovat Moldavsko p\u0159esahuj\u00ed Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed. Mnoz\u00ed politici v Ki\u0161in\u011bv\u011b se toti\u017e ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 rychl\u00e1 integrace ruskojazy\u010dn\u00e9ho Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed do Moldavska by ve skute\u010dnosti Kremlu pomohla mnohem v\u00edce ne\u017e ponech\u00e1n\u00ed regionu v t\u00e9to \u0161ed\u00e9 z\u00f3n\u011b, d\u00edky n\u00ed\u017e je od roku 1992 bez n\u00e1sil\u00ed. Stejn\u011b tak v\u011bt\u0161ina ze 135 000 turkick\u00fdch, ale rusky mluv\u00edc\u00edch Gagauz\u016f podporuje prorusk\u00e9 strany.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Moldavsko \u010dekaj\u00ed 20. \u0159\u00edjna 2024 prezidentsk\u00e9 volby a v roce 2025 parlamentn\u00ed volby. Aby zv\u00fd\u0161ila \u0161ance sv\u00e9 proevropsk\u00e9 strany Akce a solidarita (PAS) a udr\u017eela si prezidentsk\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad, vyhl\u00e1sila sou\u010dasn\u00e1 prezidentka Maia Sanduov\u00e1 konzultativn\u00ed referendum o vstupu do EU, kter\u00e9 se uskute\u010dn\u00ed ve stejn\u00fd den jako prezidentsk\u00e9 volby.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iri.org\/resources\/national-survey-of-moldova-jan-feb-2024\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Pr\u016fzkum ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed<\/a>&nbsp;jako prvn\u00ed volbu 27 procent voli\u010d\u016f, PAS o deset procentn\u00edch bod\u016f p\u0159edstihla proruskou Stranu socialist\u016f. \u0160ance, z\u00e1vazky, \u00fasp\u011bchy, dal\u0161\u00ed prorusk\u00fd politick\u00fd blok, je na t\u0159et\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b. S deseti procenty voli\u010dsk\u00fdch preferenc\u00ed by se mohl st\u00e1t kr\u00e1lem druh\u00e9ho kola prezidentsk\u00fdch voleb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rusk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da vid\u00ed v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch volb\u00e1ch p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost, jak z\u00edskat v Ki\u0161in\u011bv\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vliv. A\u010dkoli si Moskva udr\u017euje v Moldavsku oporu d\u00edky uchopen\u00ed prorusk\u00e9ho Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed, nen\u00ed d\u016fvod o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee by v tomto regionu eskalovala vojensk\u00fd konflikt. Na pap\u00ed\u0159e by v Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed m\u011blo b\u00fdt 1500 rusk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f, ale&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/carnegieeurope.eu\/strategiceurope\/89732\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">podle&nbsp;<\/a>moldavsk\u00fdch \u00fa\u0159ad\u016f jsou v\u011bt\u0161inou ve skute\u010dnosti m\u00edstn\u00ed obyvatel\u00e9 v rusk\u00fdch uniform\u00e1ch. Po\u010det rusk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed se st\u00e1le nach\u00e1zej\u00ed na \u00fazem\u00ed Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed, je ve skute\u010dnosti ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e 100 &#8211; co\u017e nen\u00ed \u010d\u00edslo, kter\u00e9 by p\u0159edstavovalo hmatatelnou vojenskou hrozbu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ukrajina nav\u00edc uzav\u0159ela sv\u00e9 hranice s Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00edm, \u010d\u00edm\u017e nep\u0159\u00edmo poskytuje ochranu p\u0159ed pozemn\u00edm \u00fatokem a p\u0159eru\u0161uje leg\u00e1ln\u00ed i neleg\u00e1ln\u00ed obchod. A\u010dkoli veden\u00ed Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed pot\u0159ebuje spojen\u00ed s Ruskem, aby z\u016fstalo odpout\u00e1no od Ki\u0161in\u011bva, je v jeho z\u00e1jmu usilovat tak\u00e9 o hospod\u00e1\u0159skou integraci s moldavsk\u00fdm st\u00e1tem. Od za\u010d\u00e1tku rusko-ukrajinsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky se politici a podnikatel\u00e9 vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed dr\u017e\u00ed mimo konflikt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Stejn\u011b jako v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Ukrajiny se pr\u00e1ce na p\u0159\u00edprav\u011b vyjedn\u00e1vac\u00edch t\u00fdm\u016f a standardizaci moldavsk\u00e9 legislativy, pravidel a postup\u016f urychlily pot\u00e9, co Evropsk\u00e1 rada zah\u00e1jila p\u0159\u00edstupov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed s Moldavskem v prosinci 2023. Proces harmonizace moldavsk\u00e9 a unijn\u00ed legislativy prob\u00edh\u00e1&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/cancelaria.gov.md\/sites\/default\/files\/medak_manual_armonizarea-legislatiei-ca-element-no-copy.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">od roku 2018<\/a>, ale kapacita moldavsk\u00e9 byrokracie k proveden\u00ed zm\u011bn po\u017eadovan\u00fdch EU je omezen\u00e1. Omezen\u00e1 je tak\u00e9 jej\u00ed schopnost vyjednat lep\u0161\u00ed dohody, kter\u00e9 nebudou m\u00edt dlouhodob\u011b negativn\u00ed dopad na moldavskou ekonomiku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Gruzie<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Gruzie ofici\u00e1ln\u011b usiluje o integraci do EU jako o hlavn\u00ed prioritu sv\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky. V pr\u016fzkumu ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed z po\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2023,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iri.org\/news\/iri-georgia-poll-finds-support-for-eu-accession-high-weariness-of-russian-presence-lack-of-faith-in-political-parties\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">89 procent<\/a>&nbsp;obyvatel Gruzie podpo\u0159ilo vstup do EU, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed strana Gruz\u00ednsk\u00fd sen &#8211; Demokratick\u00e1 Gruzie (GD-DG) se hl\u00e1s\u00ed k proevropsk\u00e9mu programu. P\u0159esto\u017ee EU ud\u011blila Gruzii v prosinci 2023 status kandid\u00e1tsk\u00e9 zem\u011b, Tbilisi neprov\u00e1d\u00ed reformy se stejn\u00fdm odhodl\u00e1n\u00edm jako Moldavsko nebo Ukrajina a ob\u010das podnik\u00e1 kroky, kter\u00e9 zemi od cesty do EU vzdaluj\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nejnov\u011bji vyvolal pochybnosti o z\u00e1vazku zem\u011b k hodnot\u00e1m EU z\u00e1kon v rusk\u00e9m stylu&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/georgia-is-sliding-towards-autocracy-after-government-moves-to-force-through-bill-on-foreign-agents-228219\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">&#8222;o zahrani\u010dn\u00edch agentech&#8220;<\/a>&nbsp;podporovan\u00fd GD-DG. Medi\u00e1ln\u00ed organizace v Gruzii se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee z\u00e1kon, kter\u00fd vy\u017eaduje, aby se nevl\u00e1dn\u00ed organizace, aktivistick\u00e9 skupiny a nez\u00e1visl\u00e1 m\u00e9dia, kter\u00e1 z\u00edsk\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u00edce ne\u017e&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/us-slams-georgia-controversial-kremlin-inspired-foreign-agent-law\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ne\u017e 20 % sv\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f<\/a>&nbsp;ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed, registrovaly jako &#8222;zahrani\u010dn\u00ed agenti&#8220;, jinak jim hroz\u00ed sankce, by mohl b\u00fdt zneu\u017eit k \u00fatok\u016fm na novin\u00e1\u0159e. Hl\u00eddac\u00ed psi pova\u017euj\u00ed toto rozhodnut\u00ed za zp\u016fsob, jak GD-DG akumulovat v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed moc p\u0159ed parlamentn\u00edmi volbami v \u0159\u00edjnu 2024. Krom\u011b toho ned\u00e1vno&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.eu\/article\/georgia-ban-change-gender-new-anti-lgbtq-law-tbilisi\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">navr\u017een\u00e9 anti-LGBTQ+ z\u00e1kony<\/a>&nbsp;kter\u00e9 by zakazovaly lidem m\u011bnit pohlav\u00ed a zakazovaly p\u00e1r\u016fm stejn\u00e9ho pohlav\u00ed adoptovat d\u011bti, tak\u00e9 vyvolaly kritiku z\u00e1padn\u00edch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Navzdory t\u011bmto opat\u0159en\u00edm se GD-DG st\u00e1le \u0159ad\u00ed na&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iri.org\/resources\/georgian-survey-of-public-opinion-september-october-2023\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">prvn\u00ed m\u00edsto v pr\u016fzkumech ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed<\/a>, pohodln\u011b p\u0159ed nepopul\u00e1rn\u00ed a rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011bnou opozic\u00ed. Navzdory pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edm protivl\u00e1dn\u00edm protest\u016fm si strana pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zajist\u00ed prvn\u00ed m\u00edsto v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch parlamentn\u00edch volb\u00e1ch, co\u017e proevropskou cestu Gruzie d\u00e1le zpochyb\u0148uje.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>GD-DG si tak\u00e9 zachov\u00e1v\u00e1 nejednozna\u010dn\u00fd postoj v\u016f\u010di Rusku a obhajuje p\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 vztahy se zem\u00ed, kter\u00e1 okupovala jej\u00ed provincie Abch\u00e1zii a Ji\u017en\u00ed Osetii. Gruzie se zdr\u017eela odsouzen\u00ed invaze Moskvy na Ukrajinu, a to navzdory vlastn\u00edm traumatick\u00fdm zku\u0161enostem s Ruskem, kter\u00e9 Abch\u00e1zii a Ji\u017en\u00ed Osetii \u010dasto vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 k destabilizaci Gruzie a br\u00e1n\u00ed jej\u00edm pl\u00e1n\u016fm na integraci do EU a NATO. Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed hodnotitel\u00e9, v\u010detn\u011b USA a MMF, z\u00e1rove\u0148 potvrdili, \u017ee Gruzie se p\u0159esto v\u011bt\u0161inou p\u0159ipojuje k re\u017eimu sankc\u00ed koordinovan\u00fdch proti Rusku. EU nav\u00edc z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/policy.trade.ec.europa.eu\/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region\/countries-and-regions\/georgia_en#:~:text=Trade%20picture,%E2%82%AC4.25%20billion%20in%2022.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">hlavn\u00edm obchodn\u00edm partnerem Gruzie<\/a> s pod\u00edlem 20,5 %, n\u00e1sleduje Turecko (14,6 %) a Rusko (13 %).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Protesty proti oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed vztah\u016f s Ruskem by mohly pokra\u010dovat a st\u00e1t se problematick\u00fdmi pro GD-DG a stabilitu zem\u011b. Vl\u00e1da a GD-DG by se v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 mohly c\u00edtit povzbuzeny slab\u0161\u00ed podporou opozice. Pokrok na cest\u011b k integraci do EU bude i nad\u00e1le pomal\u00fd, proto\u017ee Gruzie se sna\u017e\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u011bt reformy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Arm\u00e9nie<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>V posledn\u00edm roce Arm\u00e9nie d\u00e1vala najevo, \u017ee usiluje o zlep\u0161en\u00ed sv\u00fdch vztah\u016f s EU a o odklon od bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1ruk Ruska. Tato zm\u011bna zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky je d\u016fsledkem toho, \u017ee Rusko nep\u0159i\u0161lo Arm\u00e9nii na pomoc p\u0159i \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 ofenziv\u011b \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.eurozine.com\/a-small-world-war\/\">v N\u00e1horn\u00edm Karabachu<\/a>&nbsp;v roce 2023. Rusko tak svou pasivitou p\u0159i p\u0159ipojen\u00ed N\u00e1horn\u00edho Karabachu k \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu poru\u0161ilo klauzuli o vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 obran\u011b v r\u00e1mci Ruskem veden\u00e9&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/en.odkb-csto.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Organizace smlouvy o kolektivn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti<\/a>&nbsp; (CSTO), mezivl\u00e1dn\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 aliance typu NATO, kterou tvo\u0159\u00ed Arm\u00e9nie, B\u011blorusko, Kazachst\u00e1n, Kyrgyzst\u00e1n, Rusko a T\u00e1d\u017eikist\u00e1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nikol Pa\u0161injan, arm\u00e9nsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/asia-pacific\/armenia-threatens-to-leave-russian-led-military-alliance-csto\/3162402\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">prohl\u00e1sil<\/a>&nbsp;\u017ee \u010dlenstv\u00ed Arm\u00e9nie v CSTO je nyn\u00ed zmrazeno. Arm\u00e9nie rovn\u011b\u017e odvolala z\u00e1stupce zem\u011b v CSTO, kter\u00fd s\u00eddl\u00ed v Moskv\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>P\u0159i absenci jak\u00fdchkoli bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1ruk ze strany Ruska a ochot\u011b zm\u011bnit priority sv\u00e9 zem\u011b se Pa\u0161injan z\u0159ejm\u011b soust\u0159ed\u00ed na formalizaci m\u00edrov\u00e9 smlouvy s \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem, i kdyby to m\u011blo znamenat odstoupen\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edho \u00fazem\u00ed v podob\u011b dal\u0161\u00edch \u010dty\u0159 vesnic, kter\u00e9 po\u017eaduje \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed. Pa\u0161injanova neochota br\u00e1nit N\u00e1horn\u00ed Karabach p\u0159ed \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nskou arm\u00e1dou nicm\u00e9n\u011b oslabila jeho popularitu a zv\u00fd\u0161ila riziko nestability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Arm\u00e9nie, kter\u00e1 je tradi\u010dn\u011b z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na rusk\u00e9m arzen\u00e1lu, se nyn\u00ed sna\u017e\u00ed sv\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy odklonit od Ruska a sbl\u00ed\u017eit se se Z\u00e1padem. Uv\u00edtala&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/armenia-azerbaijan-border-eu-monitors-russia\/32577717.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">mise EU, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 monitorovat<\/a>&nbsp;jej\u00ed hranici s \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem, a z\u00e1rove\u0148 usiluje o n\u00e1kup obrn\u011bn\u00fdch vozidel a radarov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f od Francie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Arm\u00e9nie v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 vyu\u017eila z\u00e1padn\u00edch hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch sankc\u00ed proti Rusku. Arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti reexportuj\u00edc\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed v\u00fdroby, jako jsou automobily, mobiln\u00ed telefony, high-tech zbo\u017e\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159ebn\u00ed elektronika, od vypuknut\u00ed v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.azatutyun.am\/a\/32523099.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">zv\u00fd\u0161ily sv\u016fj obchod<\/a>&nbsp;s t\u00edmto zbo\u017e\u00edm. D\u00edky t\u00e9to praxi se celkov\u00fd arm\u00e9nsk\u00fd v\u00fdvoz do Ruska ztrojn\u00e1sobil. Zv\u00fd\u0161ily se tak\u00e9 vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed dan\u011b, kter\u00e9 tyto spole\u010dnosti v Arm\u00e9nii platily. Pod siln\u00fdm tlakem USA a EU na omezen\u00ed reexportu hi-tech zbo\u017e\u00ed a komponent\u016f nyn\u00ed arm\u00e9n\u0161t\u00ed v\u00fdvozci pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed povolen\u00ed, aby mohli do Ruska dod\u00e1vat mikro\u010dipy, transform\u00e1tory, videokamery, ant\u00e9ny a dal\u0161\u00ed elektronick\u00e9 vybaven\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Azerbajd\u017e\u00e1n<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Azerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n d\u00e1le upevnil sv\u016fj status autokracie, kdy\u017e st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed prezident Ilham Alijev z\u00edskal 7. \u00fanora 2024 p\u00e1t\u00e9 funk\u010dn\u00ed obdob\u00ed s v\u00edce ne\u017e&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lemonde.fr\/en\/international\/article\/2024\/02\/08\/azerbaijan-incumbent-president-aliyev-wins-re-election_6503528_4.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">92 procenty hlas\u016f<\/a>. Alijev vyzval k p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00fdm volb\u00e1m pot\u00e9, co v listopadu 2023 \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b obsadil N\u00e1horn\u00ed Karabach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Od t\u00e9 doby Alijev pokra\u010duje ve zlep\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed vztah\u016f se zem\u011bmi Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu a St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie, v\u010detn\u011b&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/afghanistan-azerbaijan-embassy-kabul\/32821357.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">vl\u00e1dy Talibanu v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu<\/a>. Jeho prioritou je z\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/europe\/azerbaijan-accelerates-zangezur-corridor-construction-opening-vital-transport-routes\/3104421\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Zangezursk\u00e9ho koridoru,&nbsp;<\/a>bezceln\u00ed tranzitn\u00ed trasy, kter\u00e1 by prot\u00ednala arm\u00e9nskou oblast Sjunik a spojovala \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n s jeho z\u00e1padn\u00ed exkl\u00e1vou Nach\u010divan. Alijev vyv\u00edj\u00ed&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mfa.am\/en\/press-releases\/2024\/04\/19\/8th_meeting\/12606\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">n\u00e1tlak na Arm\u00e9nii<\/a>&nbsp;aby souhlasila s postoupen\u00edm \u010dty\u0159 vesnic, kter\u00e9 by ho p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eily k tomuto c\u00edli. \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da m\u00e1&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/radar.am\/hy\/news\/politics-2609232373\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">souhlasit<\/a>&nbsp;s v\u00fdstavbou koridoru Zangezur s Tureckem, co\u017e je nutn\u00e1 podm\u00ednka pro rychl\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I p\u0159es rostouc\u00ed autokratizaci a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/new-atlanticist\/russia-azerbaijan-ties-worry-united-states\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">obnoven\u00e9 vztahy<\/a>&nbsp;s Ruskem od roku 2022 udr\u017euje EU \u00fazk\u00e9 vazby na \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm kv\u016fli jeho z\u00e1sob\u00e1m ropy a plynu a strategick\u00e9 poloze mezi Ruskem a \u010c\u00ednou. EU nakupuje plyn od \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu, aby sn\u00ed\u017eila svou z\u00e1vislost na Rusku. \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n z\u00e1rove\u0148 za\u010dal dov\u00e1\u017eet plyn z Ruska na z\u00e1klad\u011b dohody, kter\u00e1 by m\u011bla Baku umo\u017enit uspokojit vlastn\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed popt\u00e1vku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Azerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/energy\/natural-gas\/azerbaijan-emerges-as-key-player-in-european-energy-security\/40765#:~:text=Azerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n%20vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed%20zemn\u00ed%20plyn%20do,do%2020%20bcm%20do%202027.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">v\u00fdvoz zemn\u00edho plynu do Evropy<\/a>&nbsp;od roku 2021 do roku 2023 neust\u00e1le roste a v roce 2021 dos\u00e1hne 19 miliard metr\u016f krychlov\u00fdch (m\u00b3), v roce 2022 22,6 m\u00b3 a v roce 2023 23,8 m\u00b3. Posledn\u00ed&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/energy.ec.europa.eu\/news\/joint-statement-10th-ministerial-meeting-southern-gas-corridor-advisory-council-and-2nd-ministerial-2024-03-01_en#:~:text=V%20celku%20Azerbajd\u017e\u00e1n%20vyvezl%20pouze,\u00c1zerbajd\u017e\u00e1n%20do%20Evropsk\u00e9%20Unie.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">byl rozd\u011blen&nbsp;<\/a>mezi trhy EU, Gruzie, Turecka a Srbska. Dohoda \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu o dovozu plynu z Ruska, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 Baku umo\u017enit uspokojen\u00ed vlastn\u00ed dom\u00e1c\u00ed popt\u00e1vky, v\u0161ak zpochyb\u0148uje, zda EU skute\u010dn\u011b p\u0159eru\u0161ila z\u00e1vislost na rusk\u00e9m plynu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nov\u00e9 vypuknut\u00ed v\u00e1lky mezi \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem a Arm\u00e9ni\u00ed nad\u00e1le vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 obavy. Arm\u00e9nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed je sice v\u011bt\u0161inou vst\u0159\u00edcn\u00e9 k \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00fdm po\u017eadavk\u016fm, ale n\u011bkter\u00e9 pr\u016ftahy p\u0159i podpisu m\u00edrov\u00e9 smlouvy a vzd\u00e1n\u00ed se dal\u0161\u00edch \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e1 \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n chce, by mohly vyvolat dal\u0161\u00ed konflikt. EU se bude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b i nad\u00e1le jen m\u00edrn\u011b anga\u017eovat v politick\u00fdch spletitostech regionu a up\u0159ednost\u0148ovat ekonomick\u00e9 a energetick\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">B\u011blorusko<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Dokud bude B\u011blorusko pod veden\u00edm Alexandra Luka\u0161enka, z\u016fstane neodvolateln\u011b vzd\u00e1leno od EU. Blok&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.consilium.europa.eu\/en\/press\/press-releases\/2020\/09\/24\/belarus-declaration-by-the-high-representative-on-behalf-of-the-european-union-on-the-so-called-inauguration-of-aleksandr-lukashenko\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">odm\u00edtl<\/a>&nbsp;uznat legitimitu Luka\u0161enkova prezidentstv\u00ed po sporn\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch z 8. srpna 2020, kter\u00e9 upevnily jeho autokratickou vl\u00e1du. Navzdory n\u00e1sledn\u00fdm rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdm protest\u016fm, kter\u00e9 zpochyb\u0148ovaly jeho uchopen\u00ed moci, Luka\u0161enko z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 pevn\u011b zakotven a projevil ochotu pou\u017e\u00edt&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/07\/22\/world\/europe\/belarus-lukashenko-repression.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">jak\u00e9koli prost\u0159edky represe<\/a>&nbsp;nezbytn\u00e9 k udr\u017een\u00ed sv\u00e9ho re\u017eimu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Od rusk\u00e9 invaze na Ukrajinu, \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b z b\u011blorusk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed, je b\u011blorusk\u00e1 ekonomika zasa\u017een\u00e1 sankcemi st\u00e1le v\u00edce z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na Rusku. P\u0159esto\u017ee se B\u011blorusko nad\u00e1le form\u00e1ln\u011b dr\u017e\u00ed mimo v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b, Luka\u0161enko umo\u017e\u0148uje Rusku vyu\u017e\u00edvat b\u011blorusk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed jako vojenskou z\u00e1kladnu a n\u00e1stupi\u0161t\u011b sv\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil. Z&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.themoscowtimes.com\/2023\/02\/21\/leaked-document-outlines-russias-2030-belarus-annexation-strategy-report-a80288\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">dokumentu unikl\u00e9ho z Kremlu<\/a>&nbsp;v roce 2021 vyplynuly konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed pl\u00e1ny na p\u0159ipojen\u00ed B\u011bloruska k Rusk\u00e9 federaci do roku 2030. Takov\u00e1 unie by formalizovala st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed ujedn\u00e1n\u00ed, ale vy\u017eadovala by, aby Rusko neslo dodate\u010dn\u00e9 n\u00e1klady na zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed souladu b\u011blorusk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti. Moskva v\u0161ak ji\u017e na b\u011blorusk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed p\u0159evedla taktick\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>B\u011blorusk\u00e9 ozbrojov\u00e1n\u00ed uprchl\u00edk\u016f s c\u00edlem vyvolat nepo\u0159\u00e1dek na hranic\u00edch s Litvou, Loty\u0161skem a Polskem d\u00e1le po\u0161kodilo vztahy zem\u011b s jej\u00edmi sousedy. Migranti cestuj\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159es B\u011blorusko a pokou\u0161ej\u00edc\u00ed se p\u0159ekro\u010dit hranice EU budou m\u00edt nyn\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b t\u011b\u017e\u0161\u00ed naj\u00edt \u00fato\u010di\u0161t\u011b, proto\u017ee EU v roce 2024 p\u0159ijala p\u0159\u00edsn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed azylov\u00e1 a migra\u010dn\u00ed pravidla. Loty\u0161sko a Litva&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/lithuania-border-law-migrants-belarus\/32379259.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">p\u0159ijaly v roce 2023 vlastn\u00ed z\u00e1kony<\/a>&nbsp;a formalizovaly tak p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed praxi, kdy na sv\u00fdch hranic\u00edch s B\u011bloruskem uprchl\u00edky odstrkovaly. Podle lidskopr\u00e1vn\u00ed organizace&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.msf.org\/belarus-two-years-response-acute-humanitarian-crisis-eu-eastern-borders\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">L\u00e9ka\u0159i bez hranic<\/a> je mnoho lid\u00ed, kter\u00fdm se poda\u0159\u00ed dostat do Litvy, Loty\u0161ska a Polska, st\u00e1le nuceno pohrani\u010dn\u00edmi org\u00e1ny vracet se zp\u011bt na b\u011blorusk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed, \u010dasto s pou\u017eit\u00edm n\u00e1sil\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h5 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee politick\u00e9 trendy v n\u011bkter\u00fdch \u010dlensk\u00fdch st\u00e1tech EU ponech\u00e1vaj\u00ed Rusku p\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 l\u00eddry, jako je ma\u010farsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Viktor Orb\u00e1n, m\u00e9n\u011b izolovan\u00e9&nbsp;v jeho odporu v\u016f\u010di Ukrajin\u011b. Ve Francii, N\u011bmecku, Belgii, Nizozemsku, na Slovensku a v Rumunsku rostou v pr\u016fzkumech krajn\u011b pravicov\u00e9 strany, kter\u00e9 by po volb\u00e1ch v \u010dervnu 2024 mohly pos\u00edlit protiukrajinsk\u00fd postoj v Evropsk\u00e9m parlamentu i na n\u00e1rodn\u00ed \u00farovni.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>V tomto potenci\u00e1ln\u011b nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u0161t\u011bj\u0161\u00edm prost\u0159ed\u00ed pro dal\u0161\u00ed solidaritu s v\u00fdchodn\u00edm sousedstv\u00edm EU budou jak\u00e9koli protievropsk\u00e9 ne\u00fasp\u011bchy v kandid\u00e1tsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch, jako je nap\u0159\u00edklad v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed politick\u00e9 sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed Gruzie s Ruskem nebo protiunijn\u00ed vl\u00e1da v Moldavsku, podn\u011bcovat skepsi v\u016f\u010di roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed. Vzhledem k siln\u00e9 vazb\u011b mezi roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00edm EU a bezpe\u010dnost\u00ed by takov\u00fd v\u00fdsledek po\u0161kodil projekci s\u00edly EU v\u016f\u010di Rusku a omezil jej\u00ed geopolitick\u00e9 ambice.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Rusk\u00e1 agresivn\u00ed v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b postavila v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropu pevn\u011b do st\u0159edu zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00e9 agendy EU, zm\u011bnila p\u0159\u00edstup k obran\u011b a dala nov\u00fd impuls reform\u00e1m kandid\u00e1t\u016f na \u010dlenstv\u00ed v EU. S rostouc\u00edm vlivem pravicov\u00fdch hnut\u00ed a autorit\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed je v\u0161ak podpora Ukrajiny a roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed EU ohro\u017eena.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":39766,"parent":0,"template":"","tags":[],"displeu_category":[],"class_list":["post-39921","article","type-article","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.displayeurope.eu\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article\/39921","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.displayeurope.eu\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/article"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.displayeurope.eu\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/article"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.displayeurope.eu\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.displayeurope.eu\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39766"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/archive.displayeurope.eu\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39921"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.displayeurope.eu\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39921"},{"taxonomy":"displeu_category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/archive.displayeurope.eu\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/displeu_category?post=39921"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}